Preakness Stakes Contenders: A Pictorial Guide

To follow up on my Kentucky Derby Pictorial Guide, in which I showcased the beauty of 20 of the country’s top three-year-old Thoroughbreds, here’s an up-close look at the 9 horses contending in this year’s Preakness Stakes.

Regardless of odds and resume, they are all stunning (and sometimes silly) athletes.

1. Orb

2. Goldencents

3. Titletown Five

4. Departing

5. Mylute

6. Oxbow

7. Will Take Charge

8. Govenor Charlie

9. Itsmyluckyday

Preakness Stakes: Field Overview

Post time is nearing for the much anticipated second jewel of the Triple Crown. One of the most watched races of the year, the 138th Preakness Stakes will have sports fans from across the country tuning in for the answer of a single, 35-year question: will this be the year of a Triple Crown winner? While a win in the Preakness would not guarantee Orb a spot as the 12th victor of racing’s most prestigious title, it is a race notorious for spoiling the bids of impressive, seemingly invincible Derby winners year after year. Many suppose that the Preakness Stakes will be Orb’s biggest hurdle on the way to immortality.

Here I have examined the Preakness field, weighing each contender’s odds of having their picture taken with the most valuable trophy in American sports.

1. Orb - A 2 /12 length winner of the Kentucky Derby, Orb has been on a 5-race win streak since breaking his maiden last November. While a brisk pace set him up for success in his late-closing rally at Churchill Downs, in the Florida Derby he proved his ability to sit close to crawling fractions and still win with something left. Judging by how well he has come out of the Derby, it is hard to envision Orb getting handed his first defeat in 6 months. While some say his biggest obstacle may be the #1 post position, which has only produced one Preakness winner in the last 55 years, I do not think this will present a major problem. In the Fountain of Youth he won from post #1, and in fact, a large percentage of the horses to have failed from this post were 30-1 or greater and stood little chance in the first place. He is the cream of the 3-year-old crop, and keeps proving it with every race. You will receive very poor odds on him, but with the way he has been running, his presence is hard to ignore.

2. Goldencents - An impressive winner of the Santa Anita Derby, he faded to 17th in the Kentucky Derby, plagued by both a muddied track and a suicidal pace from Palace Malice. Coming off a similar loss in the San Felipe, he went on to dazzle in the Santa Anita Derby. While it is likely we will see a similar improvement going from Kentucky to Maryland, I am not sure if Goldencents will still be around after 1 3/16 against top company — possibly going too fast too soon, which has often been his downfall. Santa Anita is unusual in that horses can run faster than usual early-on, and still maintain the lead; in this way, the Santa Anita Derby has mislead many people about Goldencents’ ability to stay a route of ground. That said, the Preakness has been won by horses like Shackleford, who like Goldencents, fared best a 8.5 furlongs, yet was able to pressure the pace and draw off with it. This race sets up perfectly for him, and although I’m not going to include him, let me go on record saying that he will either fire in a big way or finish up the track. If he wins, I would not be surprised — but I also wouldn’t be surprised to see him get a bad setup and fade.

3. Titletown Five - Has not won since a 7 furlong MSW win last October. Stretched out from sprints for the first time in the Louisiana Derby, and faded to 9th. In his most recent effort, he faded to fourth in the Derby Trial. He is the classic quitter, and I almost have to wonder why his connections are sticking him in here.

4. Departing - Followed up a third-place finish in the Louisiana Derby with a strong score in the Illinois Derby. Everything looks good except for the horses he beat, Fordubai and Siete de Oros, who don’t look like top company. King Henny, the runner-up in the Texas Heritage Stakes, went on to perform poorly in his subsequent starts. His pedigree is okay, but not spectacular, so far as distance is concerned. Lasix is a performance restorer, not enhancer, so I don’t believe second time will give him any more of an edge, given it worked first try. Lasix either helps or doesn’t, and once it does, it will maintain that effect on the horse each time he uses it — not continue to improve them start after start. Some horses may take 2 tries to work well off Lasix, but if they work well the first, that is as good as they will get. While I can certainly imagine Departing finding himself a good chunk of the money, he was outkicked by horses that in turn, Orb outkicked with ease. He can place, but probably not beat Orb.

5. Mylute - Won an allowance opt. claiming in December, and has since finished 7th in the Risen Star, second to Revolutionary in the Louisiana Derby, and a late-closing fifth in the Kentucky Derby. He is the perfect horse for place or show, as his late charge should be aided by the shortened distance, or in the event of a brisk pace up front. One of the biggest myths in racing is that “if there had been more ground, he would have gotten there”. This horse is not quite good enough to actually get there (or he would have done so in one of the many opportunities that have arisen), but he’s well equipped for bringing his fans and connections devastatingly close.

6. Oxbow - Has only come in the money once since his 11-length romp in the LeComte. This is a horse who runs his best when left alone on the lead. In the presence of multiple speedsters, I do not envision him getting this sort of ideal setup. In the end, I believe he is too tired from what has been a very grueling spring campaign to show up with his best game.

7. Will Take Charge - After capturing the Rebel over Oxbow, he came in to the Derby off of an atypically long layoff to run eighth. It was his second time running out of the money on a sloppy track. While on one hand the Derby makes for an understandable loss that will set up for a big upswing in the Preakness, it is disheartening that the horses he has beaten (Texas Bling, Oxbow) have not returned to run well. With the added perk of second off something of a layoff, I expect him to run to the best of his abilities. The question is if his abilities are good enough to leave a mark against the likes of this company.

8. Govenor Charlie - Comes in from a track record setting victory in the Sunland Derby (albeit on a day that several other track records were set). Given the third place finisher went on to place fourth in the Illinois Derby, you can disregard the runner-up’s poor performance in the Illinois as any sort of class indication. GC skipped the Derby after suffering foot issues and displaying no extension in his workouts. Although he is now working well, GC has yet to prove his class against anything more than a fairly mediocre Sunland lot. The layoff won’t help.

9. Itsmyluckyday - Winner of the Fountain of Youth and runner-up in the Florida Derby, he struggled home 15th in the Kentucky Derby; he is said to have struggled with the sloppy going. Given how easily Orb passed him up in the Florida Derby, how he failed to fire at Churchill, and the softness of his pedigree, I have arrived at the conclusion that he does not want any part of running beyond 8.5 furlongs.

The Trifecta (In Order)

1. Orb

2. Will Take Charge

3. Mylute

To prepare for the event, however unlikely, of Orb failing to fire, this trifecta will be BOXED.

Anonymous asked: Im new to racing so Im still learning the lingo but what does a fast track mean?

It is a dry dirt surface, in its fastest condition. Track records and the like are usually set on a very, very fast track.

Not all fast tracks are equally fast, and the speed of a track may vary from day to day, but any time the dirt track is all dried out, it will be dubbed as ‘fast’.

Anonymous asked: If the track is fast on Saturday, how serious will you be taking the horses who are said to have run badly in the Derby because of the mud? Are they having a better chance just because the track is fast, or will the fact that they ran on a surface they don't like hurt them with a two week turnaround?

That’s a good question. It would mostly depend on the horse’s individual circumstance.

If a horse had run poorly on wet dirt prior to the Derby (such as in the case of Will Take Charge), it is safe to consider them a genuine non-slop horse, no strings attached.

If the Derby was their only experience with mud, I will examine their races leading up to the Derby, and have to make a decision about whether it was a lack of class thing, or if they had a true shot that was spoiled by the mud. Many horses in the Derby misfired in a very big way that even pedigree could not have accounted for. If they have been working well leading up to the Preakness, and are surrounded by positive reports, these horses could put in a strong effort.

While it’s true that the two week turnaround could be tricky after an exerting effort, I’ve found that horses run better in general after a defeat than a several-length victory. Although their connections will always claim they fought like a lion (and they may well have), I know from experience that there are many horses out there who just give up when the ground isn’t as they like it. It’ll look like they struggled, but they really didn’t try. Horses like this will be ready to run hard.

Most Adorable Preakness Contender

Will Take Charge wins this honor by 10 lengths.

webuiltthepyramids replied to your post: Preakness Week is Sleepy

If Orb wins the Preakness I will read every article everyone posts leading up to the Belmont. But theres a Derby winner every year. Unless the winner was who I picked like last year, I wont let myself get excited unless he repeats at Pimlico.

I feel very similar to how I felt about I’ll Have Another around this time last year. The key difference is that last year I had Union Rags to cheer for in the upcoming Belmont. No matter what people may say about him being ‘overhyped’, I was excited for that horse in a way that I seldom am for anyone. Even when he was out with injury, I was so excited for his future that the year clipped along.

This year, I feel indifferent to everything. I want a Triple Crown winner because I love Orb and think his connections deserve it. I just don’t have enough personal attachments to keep me tuned in for much more than the 2 minutes of the race.

Preakness Week is Sleepy

For all the excitement that’s supposed to be brewing over a potential dual classic sweep, this year’s Preak Week seems lethargic at best. Maybe it’s just me, but I can’t bring myself to the same level of excitement that I conjured just two weeks ago.

It’s nothing against Orb. I just don’t feel particularly inspired by this race, or his competition. The Preakness articles are getting long and repetitive, and I’m not exactly champing at the bit for a chance to look at post draws.

There are times when horse racing keeps me up at night. There are also times like Preakness Week, when I’d like to meander away and come back in time for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.

Dreaming of Julia for the Belmont?

Stamina-wise, she could be taken ether way. She will be aided by her sire A.P. Indy, but not by her damsire Wild Rush, who tired badly in the Belmont despite having a Breeders’ Cup Classic winner as a sire himself (that horse being Wild Again). Distance is more sought after on the distaff line; for the most part, it is conceded that horses get speed from the sire and stamina from the dam. For 10 furlongs, Dreaming of Julia would pass the test. She is iffy for 12.

That said, she has wins over Big Sandy, and the right style for a race that was last year won by a horse plagued with similar traffic issues. If she could sit off the leader through some easy opening fractions, lots of people think she could run off with the race. Maybe she could. I’m still not sure just how good she is - I’ve not been won over by her destruction of a tiny field. If the Belmont has a small amount of entries, and if Orb is tired from the rigors of the closely-packed Triple Crown schedule, things may set up right for her. Coming off a loss (with a good reason for it), she is ready for an upswing.

For what she is worth, however, and given the filly versus colts novelty, I think I can find a much better candidate for upsetting the final leg of the Triple Crown.

webuiltthepyramids asked: Why are you in a crib at five years old?

Well. I guess you could say I’ve always been a special kid.

thoughtsonracinglifeandmore asked: I'd like to see you try! The majority of show payouts are less than $3 because the favorite hits the board around 60% of the time, and so if the favorite gets at least 3rd, you're screwed even with a mild 10/1 shot or so. If the 20/1 shot you bet to show wins, and you bet him to show while the favorite hits the board, you cheated yourself out of a win bet!!!! This is so good I'll screen capture it.

Hmm… Sounds to me like the show wager is too risky for you! Gobble gobble.

ezrayoenig replied to your post: You know so much about horse racing! How old are you?

Anon, shes 5 years old. Shes trying to hide the fact that shes a fetus. This question makes her sensitive. Do not ask ever again. Ever.

I can always count on Reanna to boldly proclaim the truth. You’re right, I type this from my crib. I’m a sort of prodigy.

Anonymous asked: You know so much about horse racing! How old are you?

Never ask a lady her age! She might be trying to hide the fact that she is gambling illegally. (Just kidding, I’d never dream of doing such a thing…)